(CNN) -- For the past two years, according to U.S. diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks, South Korean officials have tried to convince the United States that North Korea was wracked by unrest, with Kim Jong Il in failing health and his plan to transfer power to his son Kim Jong Un in jeopardy.
With the North on the ropes, the argument went, it was increasingly vulnerable -- and hanging tough could force Pyongyang to moderate its behavior or even trigger a collapse. This assessment appears to have been a key factor in South Korean President Lee Myung-bak's hard-line policy towards Pyongyang -- a policy endorsed by the Obama administration.
The problem is that, as 2011 arrives, the South Koreans have been wrong. Both anecdotal evidence and a look at North Korean behavior make clear that the regime is nowhere near collapse, that Kim Jong Il remains relatively healthy and apparently in control, that the succession seems to be going smoothly, and that the tough line from the U.S. and South Korea has done nothing to deter the North from expanding its nuclear capability or taking military action against the South.
